LIKELY CONTENDERS

Switch 4 Democracy PAC focuses on a narrow but powerful leverage point: identifying Republican members of Congress who represent districts that voted for Joe Biden in 2020. These representatives sit at the intersection of electoral vulnerability, shifting suburban demographics, and increasing pressure to distance themselves from extremist factions.

These districts are the most structurally plausible environments for responsible realignment, caucus shifts, or high‑impact breaks with MAGA‑aligned leadership.

These members represent districts where voters chose Joe Biden in 2020 but elected a Republican to Congress. They are the most structurally plausible candidates for a party switch or caucus realignment, especially under conditions of political pressure, donor shifts, or institutional instability.

Below is the full list of current GOP House members from Biden‑won districts, along with the 2020 presidential margin and brief strategic notes.

New York

Mike Lawler (NY‑17)

Biden +10.1

Suburban NYC; one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the country.

Marc Molinaro (NY‑19)

Biden +4.6

Hudson Valley; competitive district with shifting suburban dynamics.

Anthony D’Esposito (NY‑4)

Biden +14.6

Long Island; extremely blue district for a Republican to hold.

Pennsylvania

Brian Fitzpatrick (PA‑1)

Biden +5.4

Long‑standing moderate brand; historically bipartisan.

Nebraska

Don Bacon (NE‑2)

Biden +6.6

Omaha metro; consistently competitive and trending Democratic.

California

David Valadao (CA‑22)

Biden +12.9

Central Valley; survives on personal brand but district is deep blue.

John Duarte (CA‑13)

Biden +11.0

Central Valley; narrow win in a strongly Democratic district.

Young Kim (CA‑40)

Biden +1.9

Orange County; moderate profile, competitive district.

Michelle Steel (CA‑45)

Biden +6.0

Orange County; diverse, suburban, and trending Democratic.

Mike Garcia (CA‑27)

Biden +12.4

Northern LA suburbs; one of the biggest partisan mismatches in the House

Ken Calvert (CA‑41)

Biden +1.2

Inland Empire; long‑time incumbent in a rapidly changing district.

Oregon

Lori Chavez-DeRemer (OR‑5)

Biden +9.0

Portland suburbs; highly competitive and ideologically mixed.

Arizona

David Schweikert (AZ‑1)

Biden +1.4

Phoenix suburbs; shifting demographics and tight margins.

New Jersey

Tom Kean Jr. (NJ‑7)

Biden +4.7

Moderate district with strong Democratic lean at the federal level.

Virginia

Jen Kiggans (VA‑2)

Biden +2.0

Virginia Beach; competitive and military‑heavy district.

Iowa

Zach Nunn (IA‑3)

Biden +0.4

Des Moines metro; extremely narrow partisan balance.

Why These Members Matter

These representatives are uniquely positioned at the fault line between:

• Electoral vulnerability

• Constituent pressure for moderation

• Donor blocs increasingly hostile to extremism

• Personal political survival incentives

• Growing discomfort with MAGA‑aligned leadership

They are the most structurally plausible candidates for:

• Caucus realignment

• Becoming independents

• Crossing the aisle on key votes

• Publicly breaking with extremist factions

• Full party switch under the right conditions

This group forms the backbone of any strategy to stabilize the House by encouraging responsible realignment.

Strategic Interpretation

These districts share several characteristics:

• Suburban or urbanizing demographics

• High levels of college‑educated voters

• Strong rejection of extremism in statewide and federal races

• Increasing donor pressure for stability and constitutional governance

Members from these districts often face a choice between:

(1) Staying aligned with extremist factions and risking their seats, or

(2) Realigning toward a pro‑democracy coalition that matches their district’s electorate.

Red2Blue PAC exists to make the second option politically viable.